Thursday, August 16, 2007

US sub-prime problem

I've been asking this, "what has the US's domestic problem got to do with us"? Unless US economy is heading to a new recession (last year, George Soros predicted this year to be a "recession year"), really what has US sub-prime loan problem got to do with us? For one thing, Berkshire Hathaway has just reported 33% profit jump.

1) Our bank's exposure is not in term of loan to homeowners but their investment arms. However, it is the unit trust holders that may get the pain, not the bank. Good bank never gamble, they just sit back and collect commissions (in many forms). That itself is enough to make them rich.
2) Asia, especially Singapore market, particularly the oil & gas sector, marine, construction & property, steel etc are doing good.
3) As expected by many analysts, including myself, many companies are submitting good interim/final report this month. Particularly the construction, steel & marine sector.
4) Jurong island continued to be as busy as little bees.

If the concern is only about market sentiment, then for those who doesn't time the market, there is really no worry. I choose not to run away. If the market continue to head south, then it's time for shopping spree. I have the following questions and would welcome your kind input:

1) This US sub-prime mortgage issue, we are not talking about mortgage-backed securities issued by Ginnie Mae or Fannie Mae, am I right?
2) If yes, then there is no much a worry locally. Because If I'm Wee Choo Yaw, I would want high weightage on MBS issue by the government agencies then any others. I will fire any fund manager who has heavy weight on junk bonds.
3) If I'm wrong on 1) above, then you are saying that US Government is going to default commitment to investors?

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