Showing posts with label Events. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Events. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

About Land Banking

Seminars Attraction – From Time Share to Wine

Land banking - this is a pretty new investment product now available in Singapore. Personally, I never heard of land banking until the recent Invest Fair 2007. It was there that I met two friends who are consultants of Walton International. On 22 Sep 07, I was invited to attend a seminar conducted by Walton International at Le Meridien Hotel. Unlike other seminars, I was keen in this. The reason was because I really like to know more about land banking even though I may not invest right away. Knowledge equals to power. And I was invited by a friend who does not resort to hard sales tactics. Lately I received a call from a stranger who wanted to “confirm my attendance on wine seminar”. Before he goes on with his machine-gun, I held his horse. I was annoyed and asked him what he meant by “confirm my attendance” since I never heard of his company and I never apply for any wine investment seminar. I asked him how he got my number (actually this is a stupid question. Every time you filled in a lucky draw coupon, there is a price even though you may not get the prize!). He replied that his marketing department gave him the list. By acting blur, I told him that his marketing department had screwed up. I hanged up before his took the opportunity to continue with his machine-gun.

To me, this is one of lousiest method to sell, even if it comes with a lucky draw worth a million dollar. Time Share tried it many times few years ago; didn’t work on me. The time share caller continue to “up his lucky draw prizes” when I rejected his invitation. So much for the ethics and professionalism. If a product is genuinely good, the product will sell. No carrot is needed.

Land Banking

Back to land banking. This is something more interesting because, as an accounting graduate, I know that generally, land does not depreciate or we do not depreciate land. I also know a bit about hot property market and the fundamental that “万丈高楼平地起”. So I wanted to learn more. Outside the conference room, there was quite a crowd with coats and jackets. My friend and I were on simple tees and jeans. And then I saw another lady from Walton International who was the very first one to share with me on land banking. But I accepted my friend’s invitation instead so there could be potential conflict (Walton’s code of conducts for the consultants). So I tried to avoid her. The seminar was conducted by an “ang moh” (can’t remember his name and title). But he actually answered most of my questions in his presentation. I was satisfied with his presentation. The presentation was short and straight to the point.

Land banking is about buying a piece of raw land, totally undeveloped agricultural land and wait for future development. Of course, the land banking company doesn’t goes around to buy land blindly. While land is extremely scarce and expensive in Singapore, it is not that scarce in big countries like Canada or China. So a land banking company conducts thorough research before deciding to buy a plot of land. According to the “ang moh” speaker, Walton International has experts in land and property, weather and geographic plus someone with “political influence”. He said that “Preston Manning”, an ex-Canada politician, sits in their management team. I fully agree that, just like investing in China, you need helps from people with political influence. We knew many Singaporeans failed in the 90s when they launched into the untapped territory – China. Many came back without “pants” due to problems with local culture, business practices, local governors, red taps, bureaucracy etc. SM Lee who spearheaded the Su Zhou Industrial Estate also faced challenges such that he had to travel to China a few times to get it fix up. And now, finally after so many years, Su Zhou Industrial Estate is bearing food. Without helps from people with political influence, business venture in an untapped territory is no different from walking across land mines.

After the land banking company identifies a potential land, it will buy the land and offer it to the investors. My understanding is that many years ago, land banking was only available to big institution investors or high net worth individuals. But today, many companies including Walton International packaged it for retail investors. But, it is still quite costly. Investment in an acre will cost slightly below S$20,000. Investors will be issued with a title deed and enjoyed an undivided interest in a big plot of land. This is because the company can’t just sell “your acre”. It make economic and commercial sense to sell a big plot of land owned by numerous investors and spread the returns equally. The investors must have a long-term view in this type of product and wait patiently until someone to make an offer on that piece of land.

The selling opportunity arises when a private developer had the “concept plan” approved by the government. According to the speaker, from a piece of raw land to commercial or residential buildings, the profit starts from the selling of land. Property development involved additional risk and cost. So usually a land banking company does not venture into the development phase. A developer will approach the land banking company to buy over the land and the company will determine if the price quoted is attractive. If yes, then the land banking company will revert to the investors for a decision. A 60% majority vote is required to authorize the company to proceed with the selling. And then the money will be distributed back to the investors. I remember the “ang moh” speaker mentioned that Walton International will also keep less than 20% of the profit after the disposal. From his presentation, Walton International’s projects gave average annual returns of 10% to 20%.

Risk and Returns

In my opinion, the risk of this product comes from the land banking company itself and the land. Unlike stock investment or unit trust, land banking company is not regulated. In stock investment, listed companies are regulated by the SGX and MAS. For example, listed companies must issue annual report audited by external auditor and all shareholders are entitled a copy. But if we invest in an investment product through a private company, then the investors must do their research on that company. The second risk comes from the land and the followings are my FAQs.

1) Although we do not depreciate land, but what will cause a land to become a “waste land”? Perhaps earthquake or volcanoes? But I believe that this should be remote. In any case, nobody can predict such events.

2) What if after many years, still there is no concept plan or nobody wants that land? According to the speaker, their company not only research on a piece of land but secure “information” from authority on their overall planning. I think what he mean was that they buy it when the probability of near future development is very high.

3) The returns sound lucrative, 10% to 20% annual returns. If you are lucky and you get 20%, you are very close to Warren Buffett. Personally, I can’t achieve 20% annual return from stock investment, yet. But I am more interested in worse case scenario than rosy pictures. According to my friend, Walton’s worse record was returns of less than 10%, i.e. historically, their investors NEVER incurred losses from Walton’s projects. WOW!

4) What if, for some reason, an investor falls into financial hardship and need to check out immediately? Can he exit from the investment before the “selling opportunity”? According to the speaker, Walton will help to find another potential buyer. In this case, the first investor is not likely to get any reasonable returns. This is fully acceptable. In fact, if an investor wants to dispose off before the “right time”, it may also be fair that he had to sell at a reasonable discount. This is because it has been made clear that investment in land banking takes a few years. An investor must take full responsibility for pre-matured disposal.

5) I love to “buy low sell high”. So can I invest during a recession? According to my friend, the offering price is always the same, i.e. US$10,000 or C$10,000. My immediate reaction was “how can this be”? I asked my friend to check with Walton’s management on how they determine the selling price. I know how stock market and unit trust determine the selling price at any stage, but what about land banking? This was indeed a good question and my friend will revert to me once he got an answer from his management.

6) Can I study Walton International’s annual report? The objective is to understand their financial health and performance. And who know I should not buy land, I should invest in Walton instead! Unfortunately, Walton International is not listed. They have no obligation to show me their annual report.

Conclusion

In my opinion, the reason for a land banking company to offer its land to the investing public was because of capital limitation. It takes many years for a land to yield positive result and a cash inflow. But a land banking company cannot just sit on a few pieces of land and wait for an offer. By packaging it to the investors, cash will come in immediately after land procurement and then they can go on to source for more potential land. Of course it is fair that investors will share both risk and rewards. With more money, land banking company’s turnover will continue to rise. This concept is similar to mortgage-back security except that, unlike human, there is no default risk with land.

We know that when property market is hot, an investor can earn 100% returns or more within very short time. Here in Singapore, we have many such examples for prime lands. Thus I suspect that land investment can and should be highly profitable. We know that Ng Teng Fong and Lee Kah Shing become super rich by owning land. Although I do not have evident to prove my point, I suspect that the profit and commissions earned by a land banking company and its consultants are quite significant. Otherwise potential returns for the investors could have been even higher. Notwithstanding this aspect, it is indeed wonderful to have such product opening to smaller investors with potentially higher returns. In my opinion, the main research for any investor in this product should be on the reliability of the land banking company and his/her investment horizon. There is a good article on land banking at asiaone.com. If it is not there anymore, you can get it from me.

Monday, August 27, 2007

A Day At The Invest Fair ’07 (25 Aug)

Outside The Hall

I reached the Suntec Convention Hall (level 4) at around 12pm. I dropped my lucky draw coupon at the entrance and received my ‘goodies bag”. I remember attending such exhibition in mid-90s also conducted by SGX (then known as SES) and the goodies was really good. Among other things, I got phone card, name cardholder and an expired share certificate (Jack Chia MPH). I still have the share certificate, should be an antique soon. I am prepared to let go at S$10,000 (negotiable).

Inside The Hall

As usual, it was big and crowded. But at least not like that kind of crowd you see at Chinatown during Chinese New Year eve right after the reunion dinner. In the hall, I decided to start from the left side and I came to Optionetic’s booth. They are giving away free book, if you surrender your particulars. By the name of the company I already know their expertise. So about option trading:

- Can be call or put options. You can make money in an up market and a down market.
- Speculation based on certain catalyst, usually corporate announcement.
- Limited downside but unlimited upside.
- Huge market in US
- Can also use to protect portfolio (protective puts)

Again, since it’s about speculation, I am not going to touch on it. I had never tried option trading but I know what it is from my (CFA) studies. However, I am going to share with you my friend’s experience with options trading.

Option Trading and Training

Option trading is nothing new to traders in US, but relatively new to Singaporeans. If I am not wrong, the idea was brought in and became active after 2000 (dot.com burst). A few trainers emerged to conduct (expensive) courses and companies setting up and offering their trading platforms.

One of my friends attended such training. One day, I went to his place and I picked up one of the training manual to glance through. Something caught my attention. I saw a few pages with pictures of fund managers. They were categorised under two headings: those funds that had gone bust and those who survived to-date. The learning outcome of these pages was not stated. For those who survived, I saw photos of Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett etc. – value investors. Immediately I know what’s going on. I turned to my friend and said:

“bro, I never heard of these (bankrupted) fund managers. But I am willing to bet with you that they are not value investors. Let’s key in their names into Yahoo search……”

Truth enough, they were all hedge fund managers. These are fund managers constantly looking for opportunities in any forms - options, futures, forex, M&A etc. They can be in and out of a market very fast once a catalyst sets in. What’s really amusing is that by putting up these pictures, the trainer is effectively slapping his own face – options equal to speculation!!! And to add to your laughter, many trainees including my friend didn’t realize that!!! He was shocked after that.

"Yo bro, if you are reading my blog now, please tell my readers that I am telling the truth!"

(Subsequently, this friend of mine gave up options and started to learn value investment from me F.O.C. although I could have charged him S$10,000. A year later, he found a job as a Research Executive in a big company, though luck plays a part).

Land Banking

Back to the exhibition hall. Anyway, I got a copy of the free book from Optionetic and surrendered my particulars (please lah, I’m still a Singaporean leh, anything free just grab). I bypassed booths from broking house such as CIMB-GK, a few listed companies such as Petra Food, Bursa Malaysia, SGX, wine investment, GE Life, Adam Khoo’s Learning Technology and then I came to this company Walton International. This is a land banking company. Coincidentally, I heard of this term "land banking" only the night before when a friend told me that he will be signing a contract to “buy land”!!! A lady consultant approached me and I decided to sit down to understand their products. The followings are some of the points I picked up:

- A land banking company buys and holds a piece of undeveloped land mostly in countries such as UK, Canada and US. It takes a few years before the land can be dispose off at a good profit, if there is a demand.
- You invest by buying at least a unit which cost S$10,000. If the land you chose is located in US, then you have to multiply by the exchange rate. And you are locked in. You may exit from the investment early as the company may (not sure if it is guaranteed) buy over your units. But returns will be minimal.
- Thus a whole plot of land is actual owned by many investors. You need to invest with long term view and returns come in at times of disposal. The land will appreciate when the local government release “planning permission” on the land and developer starts to bid for it. Or else….
- Unlike property, land do not depreciate (unless got hit by natural disasters).

What I am interested in is the correlation of land banking with the economy. A few days later, I done a quick check on Yahoo. I got both positive and negative comment on this investment products. Since I have not completed my due diligence, I shall not jump to conclusion. But one thing for sure, the company had created an awareness. I will monitor and when there is a chance, to discuss it with some of my friends who are active in investment and up-to-date.

Value of a Winning Strategy

After I exchange card with the consultant, I quickly proceed to seminar room 4 for the topic that I am interested: “Can I invest for a living?”. Guess what? It was flooded all the way to the door and I can’t see a thing. Disappointed, I left the hall and visited a friend who is doing business in Suntec. At 2pm, I managed to attend another talk on “Learn the power of option trading”. At the end of it, the speaker revealed the course fees to be S$6,000 plus and they are offering a S$1,500 discount for first five who signed up.

Do you know that Warren Buffett never writes a book on his winning investment strategy? If option trading is such a easy winning strategy, why would they want to reveal it and earn from training fees? Or why should they waste their time teaching instead of trading? Or teaching is actually more profitable than trading? I leave it to you to ponder. If I found a guaranteed/chop/signed winning strategy, pay me tens of S$10,000 and I still won'I reveal.

I ended the day with a nice coffee session with a few (new) friends sharing and exchanging investment knowledge. Hey, without scrolling back, can you recall how many times I mentioned "S$10,000" in this article? :-)

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Invest Fair 2007

Invest Fair '07 is the largest investment exhibition organised by ShareInvestor. The event is supported by the Singapore Exchange and Bursa Malaysia.
The fair will be held from 25th - 26th August 2007 at the SUNTEC Singapore International Convention and Exhibition Centre, Level 4, Exhibition Hall 404, from 10am to 6pm.
It is an event for investors to learn and be educated on the latest financial products and services, identify investment trends, understand the market outlook and hear from the experts as to how, where, when and what to invest in.
With over 50 seminars, a lucky draw with attractive prizes, an investment game as well as panel discussions moderated by Channel NewsAsia presenter Melvin Yong, the fair is expected to draw a crowd of over 15,000 visitors. So be sure to mark it on your calendars and stop by!

For more info, please log in to:

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