US consumer spending up 0.2%

Excerpt from AFP (28 Aug 09):

WASHINGTON - US CONSUMER spending rose for the third consecutive month in July while incomes were virtually flat, government data showed on Friday in a report suggesting demand picking up amid the long recession.

The Commerce Department said consumer spending - which drives two-thirds of US economic activity - rose 0.2 per cent in July, in line with the average analyst forecast.

Personal income was up less than 0.10 per cent and disposable personal income - income less personal taxes - slipped less than 0.1 per cent.
The department said spending rose a revised 0.6 per cent in June, a hefty 0.2 percentage point higher than the initial estimate.......

Update on REITs' performance (1)

During recent gathering, some of my friends were asking about investment opportunity in SGX-listed REITs. Hence I decided to do a bit of study in REITs. Although REIT index underperformed against the STI, there are still potential outlook for REITs consider the recovery in global economy. At least that’s my view on the direction of global economy. The following is an excerpt from Business Times (29 Aug 09) on REITs’ performance:

“The Straits Times Reit Index has underperformed the benchmark Straits Times Index almost every day in the past 12 months. Despite some recovery since March, Reit returns are still some 15 per cent behind the equity index. Unit prices have been driven down by concerns over refinancing and worries that commercial or industrial rentals will not get sprightly, and that hospitality rates will remain depressed. Yet they have not been doing all that badly, even if the market has not realised it yet. A Phillip Securities research report found that on a year-on-year basis, out of the 18 Reits that have announced their results, 12 reported revenue growth, one reported flat revenue growth while five reported negative revenue growth. Nine Reits saw an increase in distribution per unit (DPU); the other nine saw a decrease.”

Whilst many REIT-counters had surged by as much as 100% since their low in Mar 09, the valuation and outlook remains attractive for some. I’ll just pick a few REITs to share with all. These REITs may see lower returns for the year but has remained strong and struggled well in the midst of the recession.

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Suntec REIT

Property owned: Suntec City Mall and certain office units in Suntec Towers One, Two and Three and the whole of Suntec Towers Four and Five, Park Mall, Chijmes and one-third interest in One Raffles Quay.

Reporting period: 1H2009

Rental revenue = $129.4m (up 12.4% year-on-year)
Returns after tax = $58.4m (down 10.3% year-on-year)
Overall occupancy rate = 94.8%
Distribution per unit = 5.895 cents (up 11% year-on-year)
NAV = $1.984
Current price = $1.01
Yield = 5.84%

Recent significant activities: Suntec REIT invests S$25m equity stake to gain strategic foothold in Suntec Singapore international convention & exhibition centre.

Analysts’ target = $1.07 (CIMB), $0.94 (hold – Phillip)

My view: Suntec REIT has huge growth potential considers the development in the area includes construction of Circle Line and Marina Bay Sands which will bring in more crowd and activities after completion. However, near term stock movement is highly uncertain considers the presumably economic recovery is still at infant stage. On 28 April 2009, Suntec REIT obtained a secured facility of S$825.0 million Term Loan Facility with a panel of 7 banks to refinance all borrowings maturing in FY 2009. This give us a breather on its refinancing needs.

My recommendation is to buy half of your target quantity for its yield and hold. Should there be a technical downturn, you should then accumulate to your target quantity.

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Mapletree Logistics Trust

Invest in a diversified portfolio of quality income-producing logistics real estate and real estate-related assets in Asia. By 30 June 2009, this has grown to a portfolio of 81 properties, with a book value of approximately S$2,906 million spread across 6 countries: 47 are in Singapore, 11 in Malaysia, 8 each in Hong Kong and Japan, 6 in China, and 1 in South Korea.

Reporting period: 1H2009

Rental revenue = $105.2m (up 21.7% year-on-year)(2Q 2009 started and ended with 81 properties. 2Q 2008 started with 72 properties and ended with 76 properties)
Returns after tax = $57.3m (up 11.8% year-on-year)
Overall occupancy rate = 98.3%
Distribution per unit = 2.95 cents (down 25% year-on-year)(decrease in DPU y-o-y due to additional units arising from the rights issue in Aug 2008)
NAV = $0.88
Current price = $0.645
Yield = 4.57%

Recent significant activities: Rights issue of 3 units for every 4 units owned at a right price of $0.9285.

Analysts’ target = $0.70 (DBS)

My view: With low PE, low PB and reason yield, it is recommended to buy half of your target quantity. Should there be a technical downturn in the 2H2009, you can then complete your acquisition. I still hold the view that global economy has passed the pit of the business cycle.








To be continue……..

Global economic recovery 'has started'

Isn't this what we have been waited for - global recovery. In fact, all the signs and symptoms suggested that we may have just passed the bottom of the business cycle - we are on the road to recovery. Well, that's what i reckon. But do not expect that thing will change overnight. Do not think that out of sudden businesses are reporting huge jump in revenue and profit, or consumer confidence and job creation skyrockted etc. Get real, it takes a bit of time to feel the positive impact - assuming no more big scandal or crisis. Trust me, many local companies still keep their "headcount freeze" policy intact.

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WASHINGTON - The global recovery from recession has begun but countries will need to rebalance their economies to make sure it is sustainable, International Monetary Fund's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, said Tuesday.
'The recovery has started. Sustaining it will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries,' he said in an IMF article, released in advance of publication on Wednesday.
Mr Blanchard cautioned that predictable models based on past recoveries from recessions would not apply to the worst global slump in seven decades.
'The world is not in a run-of-the mill recession. The turnaround will not be simple. The crisis has left deep scars, which will affect both supply and demand for many years to come,' he said. -- AFP

NLP with Mind Kinesis (3)

Perceptual Positions

In NLP, perceptual position is a process (a mental technique) whereby you mentally review (or preview) a situation from a number of different positions (or point of views) in order to enrich your appreciation of what is involved. The use of perceptual position:

- Improves your understanding of other people.
- To take a step back and consider issues.
- Helps you appreciate the influence of your verbal and non-verbal behaviour on others, and the influence of their behaviour on you.

To do this, first identify a past event that you have a serious relationship problem. You are, and must, be willing to let it go. Then mark 3 positions on the floor - position 1 represent's client himself, position 2 represnt the third party and position 3 represent a coach/consultant. Let’s assume that you are the coach/consultant and you are doing perceptual position with a client.

Step 1:
- Briefly discuss on this issue with client and identify the third party involved in this situation.

Step 2:
- Get client into position 1 and fully associate with his/her own feeling, viewpoint, experience etc.
- Ask client questions like “how do you feel”, “what is your highest intention”, “what’s your opinion of the third party”, “why is he/she acting in this way” etc etc?

Step 3:
- Step out of position 1 and break state (ask any irrelevant question or remark).
- “What did you have for breakfast”.

Step 4:
- Get client into position 2 and fully associate into the other party’s feeling, viewpoint, experience etc.
- Ask client questions like “how do you feel”, “what is happening”, “what is your highest intention”, “what’s your opinion of the you in position 1”?

Step 5:
- Step out of position 2 and break state (ask any irrelevant question or remark).
- “Sorry I need a toilet break”.

Step 6:
- Get client into position 3 and fully associate into a consultant/coach.
- Ask client questions like “how do you feel the “you” in position 1 & 2”, “what are the differences in behaviours and intention”, “what are the values you can draw to address the problem”, “what more can be done to improve relationship”?

Step 7:
- Step out of position 3 and break state (ask any irrelevant question or remark).

Step 8:
- Get into position 1 again and ask how well can client handle the situation now.

Step 9:
- Get into position 2 again and ask how well can client handle the situation now.

Note again that NLP is more an art than science. So you actually can find other NLP coaches with slightly different procedure. Some come with position 4 whilst others recommend to go through the cycle 2 times.

What I am about to say next is a matter of my opinion. Firstly, the whole processes may look profound but is very simple – just try to put yourself into someone else’s shoe. And many of us could be actually doing it most of the time (without going through the steps above) by being understanding. In my opinion, perceptual positions can only be used under certain circumstances. E.g. you can’t do this to a lady who had been raped, or someone who had been cheated by his/her friend in a business deal or a wife been constantly abused by her husband. Also note that perceptual position requires you to “associate into the thinking/behaviour/intention” of the third party. A person simply cannot try to perceive the behaviour/intention of the third party through his/her own very brain especially when the third party has a downright ill intention.

Therefore, in my opinion, perceptual position is used in a normal situation of mis-understanding. And actually anyone can do it without going through the steps above – by taking a deep breathe and do self-reflection on the whole issue assuming that that person is open and willing to mend the relationship.





…….. to be continue

NLP with Mind Kinesis (2)

Basically NLP’s communication model says that when we receive messages, our brain will process, filter and alter it. These messages become certain meaning to the recipient depending on many factors. And whatever this meaning might be, couple with the recipient’s physical posture, it ultimately determines the recipient’s BEHAVIOUR. And of course, the behaviour will have a direct impact on the result. That means to say, if a person wants to have solid result in things he/she is doing, he/she must change to a positive posture and do something such that whatever message the brain processes, the meaning to it is always positive. Hence, when the internal representation and the physical appearance both turned positive, the recipient would take massive and unstoppable actions to get what he/she wants.

The question is – how to make sure that our brain will always interpret messages positively? That’s why people pay a few thousand dollars for NLP programme. And if you think that I can share with you the course detail such that you can acquire the skill by just reading notes, you are dreaming. Can you learn driving or ballet by reading blogs? Not likely. Besides, there are quite a number of NLP tools to use and I’m not even competence in any of them. I mean get real; a person cannot be competent by attending a 6-day coaching.

My Second Struggle

When the programme started on 17 Jul, I had another problem and a serious one. Not many people knew that I had a medical condition – hearing problem. Sometime in May this year, my hearing started to deteriorate and doctors just simply gave me medicines and eardrop. And it got worst by the time I started the NLP programme. I totally have no mood to continue with the programme as I am worried that I might turn deaf. If that happens, I will lose my job and become a burden to my parents. In fact, my hearing problem was one of the factors that upset me in May and I’ve been running around clinics/polyclinic since then.

I told my NLP trainer on my personal problem and he advised me to focus on controllable things – to see specialists (he shared during 1st day training that highly effective people focus on controllable things). The final outcome is beyond my control. He wants me to think on the positive side. Finally I went to see the specialist and still continue with the NLP programme.

First 3 days

During the first 3 days, we gone through quite a number of tools such as NLP’s presuppositions which to-date, I still could not fully appreciate the concept. There are 14 presuppositions but some of them seems to be repeating especially those related to “behaviour” or “resources”.

And one thing very important to highlight here is that NLP tools do not provide solutions to clients’ problem. These tools are not designed to provide solution but to guide the client to get the solution from himself. Doctors seek to provide solution to client’s problem, but not NLP tools!

We also touched on how to use our senses to build rapport, to influence and improve communications. For example by taking note on client’s breathing, skin colour, by mirroring client’s habit/movement, by chunking up/down the messages, submodalities, swish patterns etc. I’ll just share one exercise here – sensory acuity (seeing, hearing, feeling, smelling and tasting). It is very important to “sense” what’s going around us (in Mandarin we call that as 知自知彼，百战百胜):

- Feedback /information that indicates the extent to which you are on or off target in achieving your outcomes.
- Other people’s actions and reactions to certain situations/stimuli.
- How you are reacting to certain situations/stimuli.

To practice your sensory acuity, you can do this simple exercise with someone. This exercise is a two-person exercise - A and B. B’s job is to observe A. To simplify the discussion, let us assume A is a male and B a female.

1. A clear his mind so as to be in neutral state, closes his eyes and thinks of someone he dislikes.

2. While A thinks about this person, B takes note of any physiological reaction on A such as tension around the eyes, changes in skin colour, heavy breathing etc.

3. Once step 2 is completed, ask A any irrelevant question or remarks such as “can I borrow $50 from you?” This is called a break state and it clears the mind of the internal representations of the person A dislikes.

4. A closes his eyes and thinks of someone he likes while B repeats step 2.

5. A break state by stretching and/or looking out the window.

6. Now B describe to A her observation when A was thinking of someone he likes and dislikes.

7. A chooses one of the two people he thought about earlier and does not tell B which person it is. He closes his eyes and thinks of this person again.

8. From what she observed earlier, B tells A who A is thinking about.






…… to be continue

NLP with Mind Kinesis (1)

I have not been writing on my blog for more than a year despite surged in global market. I think it’s about time I start writing and sharing. But today I am not going to talk about stock market. Instead I like to share with you my encounter with NLP.

Now what the hell is NLP? NLP stands for Neuro-linguistic Programming. In a nutshell, NLP is about altering our thoughts and that of others in order to produce the intended results. This is achieved by using the tools of NLP to alter the way our brain process data/information in order to influence our actions. This is generally known as having a “positive mindset”. It was a model created by Richard Bandler and John Grinder plus a few others. Unfortunately these buggers fell out in the 80s and in 90s, Bandler filed a lawsuit against Grinder. The legal case came to an end 10 years later.

By the way, the above description of NLP is not found in dictionary or wikipedia. It’s my definition based on what I learn from Cayden, founder of Mind Kinesis. Hopefully I got it correct…..hahaha.

How I Got There?

How I got myself enrolled into the NLP programme in the first place? I am sure most of my friends in NLP course make a choice to sign up mainly to overcome obstacles in life. But not for me. I join the course because of one good buddy Bob – he paid up half of the course fee in my name after he attended the free seminar. Actually I had previously attended the seminar but didn’t have the intention to sign up because I don’t think I have any problem in life!!! When I said this in the class, somebody turned to me and said, “wow, no problem, then you got very serious problem!!!”

Knowing Bob for more than 10 years, IMHO, he is not as generous as one might think and certainly not a philanthropist.

“No offence brother if you are reading my blog now!!! Hahaha…….”

But yet for once in his lifetime (or perhaps many more to come), he done something extraordinary for me. He paid half of my course fee and gave me a choice to pay the other half to attend the programme. The root cause of his unprecedented action was because I was at super low mood in May this year. Was it mid-life crisis? Maybe but certainly stressful job is one of the contributing factors.

And there came my first struggle – should I pay half of it? It’s a thousand dollar mind you. Finally I chose to sign up the programme even though I struggled for a while. As to what’s going on deep inside, that’s for you to find out!!!

Whatever it is, I had finally completed the programme and certified. Seriously I never thought that I would finish the whole programme as I had other struggles, which I will share subsequently. All this would not take place without Bob and “thanks brother”!!! I promise you that one day I make my first million, I’ll compensate you back your one thousand dollar course fee.



……..to be continue