中國毒奶粉的事件

Lately a friend sends me an article on China’s milk poisoning issue. Not sure how accurate but still decided to share it with all. At least good as a warning.

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中國毒奶粉的事件讓大家都很害怕,每天看新聞報導,說法卻變來變去。沒有人清楚告訴我們到底什麼可以吃？什麼不能吃!!! 這時候該怎麼辦呢？

1.毒奶粉到底是什麼？

就是「三聚氰胺」。這是化工實驗室裡的「三聚氰胺」

「三聚氰胺」原本是做什麼用的呢？它是一種工業原料主要是用來製作「美耐皿」碗盤

還有家裡裝潢一定會用到的「美耐板」

「三聚氰胺」是一種工業原料,根本就不能吃!

2.為什麼「三聚氰胺」會出現在奶粉裡？

奶粉是由牛奶製成的,牛奶最重要的營養成份就是蛋白質。「三聚氰胺」跟蛋白質一樣含有「氮」

偷加「三聚氰胺」,製造廠商可以省下牛奶的用量、降低成本。下面都是「三聚氰胺」,是不是跟奶粉很像？它沒有味道,所以不容易發現。

3.是怎麼發現的？

2007年 美國貓、狗暴斃,在中國製的寵物食品裡發現「三聚氰胺」2008年開始 中國嬰兒腎結石病例異常增多

2008年8月 中國三鹿奶粉被檢驗出「三聚氰胺」

2008年9月 紐西蘭總理要求中國政府處理2008年9月21日 台灣爆發多種食品含有「三聚氰胺」

4.吃/喝了會怎麼樣？

「三聚氰胺」結晶會留在腎裡面,形成結石,堵塞腎小管。結石很痛很痛,結石的人尿不出來,腎臟會水腫。

雖然結石可以動手術拿掉,卻會對腎臟造成不可恢復的傷害,到最後腎臟失去功能,就必須洗腎,否則很快就會因為尿毒症死亡。

洗腎是什麼呢？其實正確來說,應該叫做「洗血」就是把身體全部血液,抽到外面繞一圈,經過機器過濾再送回去。

整個過程大約4個小時。嚴重的人,三天就要洗腎一次,一直到死亡。

必須先在手臂上開這樣大小的洞,才能夠插管子洗腎

為什麼嬰兒最嚴重呢？因為腎臟很小,此外,嬰兒只喝奶粉,所以腎壞掉的速度是最快的。

中國目前已經有1萬3千個受害的嬰兒住院

「三聚氰胺」吃多會急性腎衰竭死亡,吃少會慢慢腎結石、腎病變它會在人體內累積。並不是吃多少的問題,而是一點點都不能吃!

5.哪些東西不能吃/喝？

只要是奶精或奶粉做成的,都可能含有毒奶。包括這些

大家只要記住:有「奶精」、「奶粉」的,都不能吃/喝。

6.毒奶事件影響到哪些廠商？

下面這些都是跟毒奶事件有關的廠商、產品

另外,這些公司也受到影響:

亞信、佳美、上田、特順香、老大房、台威食品公司、高育生物科技公司、雲林北港宗泰食品、尚效、品高、久津、維益食品公司、真口味、維士比、盛發興實業、華盛食品、鴻寶食品、雀實食品、奕瑪國際行銷、寶佳宏企業、三錦企業、魏氏國際實業、國際儲貿、萬記貿易、力遠貿易、丞泰企業、昱彰公司、麒林公司、同興實業、英時公司、菲仕蘭、開元

如果你有親友在中國大陸,必須注意的廠商有:

河北三鹿集團、上海熊貓可寶牌、青島聖元牌、山西古城牌、江西光明英雄牌、陝西寶雞惠明牌、內蒙古蒙牛牌、天津多加多可淇牌、廣東雅士利牌、湖南南山倍益牌、黑龍江齊寧牌、山西雅士利牌、深圳金必氏牌、廣州施恩牌、廣州金鼎牌、內蒙古伊利牌、山東煙台澳美多p‰Œ、青島愛可丁牌、陝西西安御寶牌、山東煙台磊磊牌、上海寶安力牌、福建福鼎市晨冠牌

7.以後該怎麼辦？

至少半年不要吃/喝上面的產品。

如果你的家人是開早餐店、小吃店、餐廳,請告訴他們,暫時停止使用、販賣奶製品。如果你家有嬰兒,請改喝母奶、或尋找其他代替品。

Stock Market Review - Oct 08 (Part 3)

5) HupSteel. This is yet another wonderful company and I am still one of its shareholders. I make capital gain out of it before and bought it again when it retreated. Only that now I stuck with this counter but without regret. This is because HupSteel is still a wonderful company earning some decent return. I remember one of ex-colleagues bought HupSteel in 90s at around $0.70. Back then, HupSteel was known as Hup Seng Huat and my friend got stuck with the company for a very very long time. However, things changed after global economy started to recover in 2004. There was huge demand for metal and HupSteel was riding on solid growth. Its share price went up to $0.60 even after the company issues bonus, rights and giving out good dividend. But today, its share price dropped to $0.215. Let’s take a look on its financial performance and position.

Business: dealer in steel products, hardware and property investment holding company.

Report: FY2008
Revenue: surged to S$433.7m (53% variance)
Net profit: surged to S$45.1m (45% variance)
NP margin: 10.4%

Cash: S$27.4m
Working capital: 2.34
LT debt to total capital: 1.8% (very little)
Basic EPS: 7.33 cents
PE: 2.93
NTA: S$0.3298
Yield: 9.3% (excl special dividend)

Director’s remark: demand for steel product to remain strong and full orderbooks from offshore and marine customers.

My remarks: In my opinion, current price does not reflect on the company financial performance and position – it’s under-priced. But then again, we still need to take cue from US economy. So hold on, stay tune and follow this company closely.

6) Pan United. Pan United just another wonderful company and I made a few buck out of it during recent bull run. In fact, I made money out of its subsidiary, Pan United Marine too. Both are wonderful company with strong profit growth and high dividend yield. Pan United is currently traded at $0.44. Let’s take a look at its financial performance and position.

Report: 1H2008
Revenue: surged to S$135.9m (25% variance)
Net profit: surged to S$14.5m (37% variance)
NP margin: 10.7%

Cash: S$53.3m
Working capital: 1.79
LT debt to total capital: 26.5%
Basic EPS: 4.53 cents
PE: 9.71
NTA: S$0.445
Yield: 4.1% (interim excl special dividend)

Director’s remark: positive outlook for FY2008.

My remarks: Pan United’s business is quite diverse and it’s not easy to analyse. However, the company is still profitable and trading at reasonable price. Worth a second look but no hurry.

..........To be continue

Pubs Updates

1) Lifebrandz closes Ministry of Sound

Many Singaporeans may have heard and/or been to Ministry of Sound (MOS in short). Me? Never! You always get long queue and I hate long queue. Reported in Business Times today, club operator Lifebrandz closed its Ministry of Sound outlet at Clarke Quay on 6 Sep, less than three years after operations. Lifebrandz said that it has terminated a licence agreement with Ministry of Sound International, which owns the franchise. It said that it plans to redevelop the 40,000 square foot dance club premises into an entertainment centre 'which will be different in concept from the Ministry of Sound outlet'.


2) St. James

Without MOS, we still have St. James. And do you know that St. James is listed! Actually St. James was not listed through an IPO but it was bought over by then listed company JK Technology. I’ve been joking with my friends by inviting them to “my pub” to drink. I don’t own ST. James of course. But since it is listed now, I will get a chance to own it…. very soon.

let’s take a quick look at St. James' performance for the year ended 30 Jun 2008.

Revenue: S$35m (39% variance)
NP: S$4.3m (127% variance)
Margin: 12.3%

Working capital: 1.03 (low but is acceptable since the business deals maintain in cash or equivalent)
Gearing: 0%

The group currently also own Bar None and The Living Room at Marriot Hotel. The group also announced that it has acquired the assets of former Crazy Horse cabaret and turning it into a restaurant with live music – The Bellini Grande. The restaurant is expected to open in late Sep 2008.

Dow Jones Crashed To New Low

From Nasdaq website, DJIA plunged another 508 points (5.1%) to 9,447. Nasdaq and S&P500 also plunged by 5.8% and 5.7% respectively.

.

There you see.... how you define "low"?

STI Crashed To New Low

STI plunged 128.8 points to 2,168.32 - lowest since June 2005. This is a complete reversal of the bull market few years ago.

Patience Is A Virtue

The following article from Business Times is an excellent report and I shared the same view. When you walk around city area or onboard a train, you will see adverts saying something like stock prices are low, hidden opportunity, this and that has strong fundamentals etc. I always laugh at it. It was all crap to me but I don’t blame the fund managers. This is because if people stop buying the funds and pull out their money, then the fund managers and analysts will be out of job soon.

The following is a good article especially to those with the idea of rushing into the market to buy while it is cheap. As always, how do you define “cheap”? Remember; always to take cue from global/local economy for your investment decision. The economic indicators are the leading indicators.

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Business Times - 02 Oct 2008

Time to buy? No - patience is a virtue

By R SIVANITHY

WHENEVER stock markets behave as they are now, it's tempting to ask whether it's time to 'bargain hunt'. Indeed, as each passing day brings a new low - be it 24, 25 or 26 months for the Straits Times Index - the temptation to buy probably grows stronger, aided no doubt by a steady stream of 'buy' calls from brokers, all and sundry.

So will it soon be time to buy? Maybe it will? And perhaps for the Straits Times Index, the fact that the 2,300 level has held twice in the past fortnight suggests this may be where there is strong support?

Our take, though, is that there is no need to rush and that patience is a virtue. Brokers and independent researchers have consistently under-estimated risks to the downside for the past year, so their 'buy' calls should be taken not with a pinch of salt but a bucket.

Analyst credibility aside, a major reason for saying this is that despite America's woes, and despite it triggering the biggest financial meltdown ever, US stocks have not capitulated yet. Even after Monday's 7 per cent collapse, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down only 22 per cent this year and the S&P 500 down 25 per cent - much less than the 35-50 per cent falls suffered by other markets.

From its all-time high, the Dow's loss to 10,365 was 27 per cent and the S&P's loss 28 per cent - over almost a year, compared with the 20 per cent crash in one day on 'Black Monday' Oct 19, 1987.

Seen in this light, the current losses on Wall Street could justifiably be taken to be part and parcel of a normal bear market and not really that much cause for concern.

Why has Wall Street not fallen as much as other markets? One possibility is the huge amount of liquidity the US Federal Reserve has pumped into the system. But more likely, it's the still-lingering hope of a government-led bailout, despite the initial proposal being rejected.

If a modified proposal is cobbled together before the end of this week and if this is again rejected, the full-scale removal of a 'bailout premium' will see US stocks start to reflect their true fundamental values.

Furthermore, it is debatable whether any US Treasury-led bailout would have any effect at all. Recall that on Monday, markets went into a tailspin many hours before the US Congress voted on the plan. So, even if a second plan is pushed through and even if this does push stocks up, it can only be a matter of time before reality sets in with regard to the US market and its fundamentals. And once this happens, investors might just cotton on to the fact that US stocks are grossly over-valued.

Bloomberg's analytic service gives the S&P 500 as trading at a historic earnings per share consensus analyst estimate of US$51 and a forecast figure of US$83. With banks disappearing, unemployment rising, consumer spending shrinking, no growth to look forward to, no bottom yet in housing and a possibly vicious recession just around the corner, how likely is it that US corporations will report such a big jump in earnings?

As for the local market, Citi Investment Research warned last week that it is possible for the STI to fall to 1,800 - a warning many investors reckon is too pessimistic. But if the index were to drop to 1,800, that would only take it to a four-year low which, given the huge risks to growth posed by America's problems and the unpre-cedented nature of the present bank failures, is arguably within reason.

The upshot of all this is that risks are still tremendously high and that Wall Street is still heavily exposed to the downside.

Investors should also realise that even if the STI's bottom does lie at 2,300, this does not automatically mean the start of a new bull market - stocks can drift for years within narrow bands before embarking on any uptrend. As such, it is clearly not time to buy yet.

Stock Market Review - Oct 08 (Part 2)

3) China Sunshine Chemical. Actually I don’t really want to discuss on “red” stocks in this series of stock market review. This is because my confident on China companies has always been low due to their corporate governance and internal control. Now before you jump to conclusion, I must let you know that I have nothing against China nationals. In fact I have close friends from China, I have colleagues from China and I love to visit China. But comes to business, I am really worried. I have friends importing goods from China sharing with me the Chinese’s mindset, attitude and method when dealing with business. I don’t think you want to know or perhaps you already knew. So when these red stocks found their way to the SGX, I seldom apply for their IPOs, let alone talking about investment. Yes I know many have made good money out of it, but that’s not my point. My point is with doubt on their corporate governance and internal control, I dare not invest in China companies.

“How come you have doubt? Can you quantify?”

Read the paper lah, brother! Even if you don’t read Business Times, at least read LianHeWanBao right? And I’m not only talking about current milk powder issue. Notwithstanding my negative thoughts, I am still willing to take some risk on a few really good ones. So here I am going to share with you on China Sunshine Chemical.

Firstly, I did not make any profit from this counter. In fact since the day I invested in it, it did not perform as expected. And right now I am sitting on significant losses instead. Then did I make a mistake in my investment decision? I don’t think so. Besides, there are also other professional analysts drawing the same conclusion. Then what’s the basis of my recommendation back then? Firstly, the company is producing a type of chemical that is essential to make rubber into something like a car tyre. The company is one of the world largest producer supporting many world-renowned tyre manufacturers such as Bridgestone, Michelin, Goodyear, Pirelli etc. Most importantly, this chemical only takes up a small percent of a tyre’s manufacturing costs. And in my opinion, recession or economic boom, people still own car, F1 continue to race, buses and airplanes continue to roll out. China Sunshine Chemical is currently priced at $0.205. What about its recent financial performance and position?

Business: one of the largest rubber accelerator manufacturers in the world and in China in terms of production capacity.

Report: 1H2008
Revenue: surged to Rmb402m (41% variance)
Net profit: surged to Rmb61m (37.3% variance)
NP margin:13.3%

Cash: Rmb37.4m
Working capital: 3.84 (healthy)
LT debt to total capital: 0% (wow!!!)
Basic EPS: Rmb10.89 cents
PE: 9.41
NTA: Rmb1.01
Yield: N.A.

Director’s remark: expect to continue its growth for FY2008.

My remarks: I believe the business, to certain extent, is immune to economic downturn. There may be some impact but should not be severe. The company is currently reasonably priced.

4) Courage Marine. Courage Marine was really one of the last marine companies to perform in terms of share price. This was partly due to the fact that it was a new IPO. But what really caught my attention on this company was its high profit margin. And honestly, I don’t understand why its profit margin is so high. So early last year (2007), in the midst of the bull run, I bought Courage Marine at a very cheap price - $0.19. One year later, I sold it at 100% capital gain, excluding dividends! Actually the dividend payout can be very high if not of its high quantity of outstanding shares. Courage Marine, after recent blood bath, is currently trading at $0.215. What about its recent financial performance and position?

Business: ownership and operation of dry bulk carriers and the provision of marine transportation services.

Report: 1H2008
Revenue: surged to US$50m (43% variance)
Net profit: surged to US$30.3m (51% variance)
NP margin: 60.6%!!!!!!!!

Cash: US$68.6m (fat)
Working capital: 16.5 (OMG! Super healthy)
LT debt to total capital: 0% (OMG!!!)
Basic EPS: US$1.67 cents
PE: 9.19
NTA: US$11.75 cents
Yield: 4.65% (for half year)

Director’s remark: BDI collapsing to 5,600 level (I got no clue what’s a BDI). Company expects demand from China to remain strong and the group to continue to do well in second half.

My remarks: Similarly, if not because of uncertain global economy, I would have started buying Courage Marine.




…….To be continue

Stock Market Review - Oct 08 (Part I)

It’s about time we review SGX-listed stocks. We’ll take a look on their current status and look back on its performance few years back. I had spend a few days reviewing all the listed stocks and truth be told, most of them are currently cheaply priced. What do I mean by “cheap”? In 2004, local economy and stock market started to recover. I remember that in mid 2003, I saw the indicators and believed that we are going to bottom up. Before I quit the Army, I told my ex-colleagues that “I think it’s about time”. I launched my first wave on the tech stock/funds. And from 2004 – 2005, many stocks were lagging behind because Ms. Market was shaky; she wasn’t sure. Index was fluctuating without clear direction. As such, I spend considerable amount of time finding gems rather than following “road-runners”. I found quite a lot of it and I’ll share a few with you today. Some of my readers may have followed my recommendation and benefited from it. Appreciate if you can testify here.

In my opinion, right now most of the counters are priced at a level similar to 2005. No doubt still has room to plunge further, but really quite cheap comparatively.

The Index

As expected, STI could not hold its ground since late last year. When sub-prime woes were exposed, STI took a hit in around July 2007. However, in around September 2007, global market under-estimated the damaging power of US financial crisis, it continued to move up. And in around Dec 2007, with surging oil price, global market started to loss steam and it was “neither here or there”. And then I’m sure it’s GAME OVER. Thereafter I started to advise my friend to either hold or sell BUT do not give a single cent to Ms. Market – she is breaking down soon.

(Note: some of you may know that “Mr. Market” is a term used by Warren Buffet and his teacher Benjamin Graham to describe market behaviour. But I used “Ms. Market” instead as I find the market behaved like a girl – temperamental!)

In early January this year, STI was around 3,400 points. As at today, STI stands at 2,361.34. Approximately 1,000 points had been wiped out. So this proves my points that although there will be fluctuations along the way, ups and downs but overall it’s coming down. And unless you speculate, you will not make it if you invest along the way.

This is the downtrend of the business cycle.

Selected Stocks

1) AusGroup. Now this is really one of mine favourite stocks. I (and my all-time favourite analyst, BT Snr Correspondence, CFA Charterholder - Ms Teh Hooi Ling) found the gems before it skyrocketed. Hooi Ling visited AusGroup’s management in Australia and wrote an excellent report published on the paper. The stock was initially priced around $0.30 in 2006. And then it became a rocket surged all the way to around $2 almost non-stopped. And what is its price now? Unbelievable $0.265! What about its recent financial performance and position?

Business: supporting oil & gas industry.

Report: FY2008
Revenue: increased to A378.9m (34.8% variance)
Operating profit: dropped to A21.7m (23.9% variance)
NP: dropped to A14.4m (27.8% variance)
NP margin: 3.8%

Cash: A18.7m
Working capital: 1.61
LT debt to total capital: 28%
Basic EPS: A3.6 cents
PE: 7.36
NTA: A22.5 cents
Yield: 2.3%

Director’s remark: secured higher orders; expected FY2009 to be profitable.

My remarks: margin and yield is unimpressive. Profit may soften further but likely to remain positive. I do not expect oil price to stay below $1 next year. Overall performance and position looks fine.

2) Bonvest Holdings. This is yet another company which make me proud; make me scream. In 2005, Bonvest was a lager and I found this gems. I studied its businesses and strongly believed that it worth more than $0.55. However, Ms. Market has different opinion. So I bought in the share and within that year, I disposed it at $0.905 – too early!!! You must be shocked when I say “too early”. Yes, after I locked in my profit, Bonvest continued to surge to around $1.70!!!!!

“Wow, then you must have regretted and jump!”

No, remember that in investment, your greatest weakness is greed and fear. I’ve earned my money, I moved on. Bonvest is currently priced at $0.72. What about its recent financial performance and position?

Business: property development and investment, food and beverage, hotel ownership and waste management.

Report: 1H2008
Revenue: dropped to S$119.7m (28.1% variance)
Operating profit: surged to S$100m (238.8% variance) due to revaluation gain of $70.3m. Without it, operating profit should be around $30m (about the same as previous identical period)
NP: surged to S$86m for the same reason (266.2% variance)

Cash: S$89.5m (fat)
Working capital: 2.15 (healthy)
LT debt to total capital: 0.26% (extremely low)
Basic EPS: S$20.7 cents
PE: 3.4
NTA: S$1.65
Yield: N.A.

Director’s remark: challenging and competitive market. Minimal contribution expected from most of its business segments.

My remarks: You want to know how I feel now? I feel that there is a very beautiful lady standing right before me, single and available. And luckily you’ve stopped me otherwise I would have jump onto it like right now! I mean if you buy Bonvest now, you are paying S$0.70 for a company that worth S$1.65! Bonvest’s financial position and performance is very impressive although it may not be able to hold its ground in view of intense market competition and uncertain global economy. And that’s exactly why I’m not calling a buy but close monitoring. US economy is highly uncertain couple with high oil and food prices; we are really not sure where this is leading to.





…… To be continue