GDP revision shows recession winding down

Enough said, it's time to take action. We had passed the pit of the business cycle, that's my analysis/prediction/gut feel whatever you put it and I had said it during recent a dinners with my ex-colleagues in SBS and SAF. They all believe otherwise. So I told them there is no point arguing, the result will be out soon and we can bet on it.

I had lately shared with 2 friends about an idiot-proof investment strategy which now is the right time to deploy. This strategy does not requires any analytical skill nor time to do close monitoring. I'll come to this strategy in my next sharing.

I never comment or pretend that I am a fortune teller based on hindsight, if you know me. All my blog sharing can testify that. The following is an excerpt from AFP:

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WASHINGTON (AFP) - – The US economy moved closer to emerging from recession in the second quarter, according to revised data Wednesday showing a smaller-than-expected 0.7 percent pace of output decline.
The figure for gross domestic product (GDP) was better than last month's estimate of a 1.0 percent drop, and stronger than the average estimate of private economists calling for a 1.2 percent annualized rate of decline.
The report appeared to confirm that the world's biggest economy was emerging from its long recession and rebounding from a hefty 6.4 percent tumble in the first quarter of 2009.
The latest data "sets the stage for an improved economic outlook for the rest of 2009 and throughout 2010," said Aaron Smith at Moody's Economy.com.
"The downturn appears to have concluded this summer, and the economy is on track to grow for the first time in more than year in the third quarter. The initial phase of growth is being driven by rapid recoveries in housing and manufacturing, diminishing drags from equipment spending and nonresidential construction, and government support."

2009 F1 Singtel Singapore Grand Prix (2)

2009 F1 Singtel Singapore Grand Prix (1)

Potential pennies - the cigarette butt strategy

5 Common Warren Buffett Myths Debunked

Somebody posted an interesting article on an investment website about Warren Buffett which I agree in part. Although Warren Buffett has been my role model in investment management, some years ago, I realized that he doesn’t really practise what he preached. For example, he invested in China oil company, junk bonds, currencies etc.

Nonetheless, value investment is still a sound investment approach that works for decades, valid today and for the years to come.
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Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) recently posted its worst loss ever and the media is buzzing again. This article attempts to clear up some of the most widely portrayed Warren Buffett myths.

Berkshire Hathaway stock, the most expensive stock in the world, peaked at $149.972 in December 2007 and has since fallen at one point over 50% hitting a multi-year low of $70,100 in early March, 2009. BRKA stock today closed at $81,690. Myths below.

1. He buys cheap stocks.

Probably the most common and widespread misconception of Warren Buffett is that he got so wealthy by buying cheap stocks. Though Warren Buffett advocates buying stocks at fair or even firesale prices if possible, it is not the only metric of his decisions. In fact, it may be a relatively minor factor in his considerations.

In his younger years, Buffett bought stocks he called “cigarette butt” stocks. Namely stocks that were selling for attractive prices (i.e. under book value, at a third of working capital etc). He did great but not very great. Buffett later acknowledged that he found out it was much better to buy good businesses instead of just cheap stocks. He later made the bulk of his fortune in American Express, Geico, Coca Cola, Gillette etc.

2. He’s ever wrong.

Yes, even Warren Buffett can be wrong! In the early 1980s, Buffett was worried that hyperinflation would make bonds unattractive investments. But inflation eventually ticked down and hasn’t raised its ugly head yet for nearly 30 years.

Buffett also made mistakes in his stock and bond investments. He bought preferred stocks in an airlines company that almost got wiped out and sold McDonald’s too early. He bought many stocks he later wished he didn’t buy. Most recently, he became the largest institutional shareholder of Conoco Phillips, an oil company, when oil prices were near their highs.

The lesson here is not knocking on Buffett. Instead, realizing that even the Oracle of Omaha can be wrong quite often tells you that losses and being wrong are an inevitable part of investing. The key issue is how we deal with risk and losses, and whether we make a lot more on our winners than we lose on our losers.

3. Buffett doesn’t trade.

Contrary to public opinion, Buffett doesn’t just invest in stocks. Though Buffett frowns on speculation, Buffett does not refrain from making investments in currencies, commodities or even the stock market of a speculative nature. In the early 2000s, Buffett actually shorted the Dollar, tidying up a handsome profit as he covered his positions a few years ago. Buffett has also been involved in silver, copper and oil (as can be seen from his letters to shareholders). Buffett also does arbitrage in the stock market. But he usually controls the sizes of his speculative positions. Perhaps the lesson to be learnt here is only to risk what you can afford to lose if you’re going to speculate.

4. Buffett doesn’t use financial leverage.

This may be one of the most persistent myths about Buffett. Buffett once wrote “Debt is a four letter word.” He strongly preaches against highly leveraged business/financial operations, but in fact, Buffett does use financial leverage. At the start of his investment career, he managed assets for other people. That’s leveraging his knowledge. Later on, Buffett bought insurance companies which generate lots of money from premiums known as “float”. Buffett could invest the float until there were claims from insurees. Though float is low cost compared to the profits Buffett generates from his investments, this is leverage nonetheless.

5. Buffett doesn’t diversify.

This is not true. Berkshire Hathaway owns dozens of companies and has investments in many sectors. True, Buffett says he like concentrating his investments in companies he fully understands. But he also recommends for the investor who doesn’t have much time for investment research that he “believes in extreme diversification”

The Oracle of Omaha is not a god, far from it, but he has many traits and his investment philosophy can be studied and learned from to aid our own personal investment decisions.

US consumer spending up 0.2%

Excerpt from AFP (28 Aug 09):

WASHINGTON - US CONSUMER spending rose for the third consecutive month in July while incomes were virtually flat, government data showed on Friday in a report suggesting demand picking up amid the long recession.

The Commerce Department said consumer spending - which drives two-thirds of US economic activity - rose 0.2 per cent in July, in line with the average analyst forecast.

Personal income was up less than 0.10 per cent and disposable personal income - income less personal taxes - slipped less than 0.1 per cent.
The department said spending rose a revised 0.6 per cent in June, a hefty 0.2 percentage point higher than the initial estimate.......

Update on REITs' performance (1)

During recent gathering, some of my friends were asking about investment opportunity in SGX-listed REITs. Hence I decided to do a bit of study in REITs. Although REIT index underperformed against the STI, there are still potential outlook for REITs consider the recovery in global economy. At least that’s my view on the direction of global economy. The following is an excerpt from Business Times (29 Aug 09) on REITs’ performance:

“The Straits Times Reit Index has underperformed the benchmark Straits Times Index almost every day in the past 12 months. Despite some recovery since March, Reit returns are still some 15 per cent behind the equity index. Unit prices have been driven down by concerns over refinancing and worries that commercial or industrial rentals will not get sprightly, and that hospitality rates will remain depressed. Yet they have not been doing all that badly, even if the market has not realised it yet. A Phillip Securities research report found that on a year-on-year basis, out of the 18 Reits that have announced their results, 12 reported revenue growth, one reported flat revenue growth while five reported negative revenue growth. Nine Reits saw an increase in distribution per unit (DPU); the other nine saw a decrease.”

Whilst many REIT-counters had surged by as much as 100% since their low in Mar 09, the valuation and outlook remains attractive for some. I’ll just pick a few REITs to share with all. These REITs may see lower returns for the year but has remained strong and struggled well in the midst of the recession.

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Suntec REIT

Property owned: Suntec City Mall and certain office units in Suntec Towers One, Two and Three and the whole of Suntec Towers Four and Five, Park Mall, Chijmes and one-third interest in One Raffles Quay.

Reporting period: 1H2009

Rental revenue = $129.4m (up 12.4% year-on-year)
Returns after tax = $58.4m (down 10.3% year-on-year)
Overall occupancy rate = 94.8%
Distribution per unit = 5.895 cents (up 11% year-on-year)
NAV = $1.984
Current price = $1.01
Yield = 5.84%

Recent significant activities: Suntec REIT invests S$25m equity stake to gain strategic foothold in Suntec Singapore international convention & exhibition centre.

Analysts’ target = $1.07 (CIMB), $0.94 (hold – Phillip)

My view: Suntec REIT has huge growth potential considers the development in the area includes construction of Circle Line and Marina Bay Sands which will bring in more crowd and activities after completion. However, near term stock movement is highly uncertain considers the presumably economic recovery is still at infant stage. On 28 April 2009, Suntec REIT obtained a secured facility of S$825.0 million Term Loan Facility with a panel of 7 banks to refinance all borrowings maturing in FY 2009. This give us a breather on its refinancing needs.

My recommendation is to buy half of your target quantity for its yield and hold. Should there be a technical downturn, you should then accumulate to your target quantity.

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Mapletree Logistics Trust

Invest in a diversified portfolio of quality income-producing logistics real estate and real estate-related assets in Asia. By 30 June 2009, this has grown to a portfolio of 81 properties, with a book value of approximately S$2,906 million spread across 6 countries: 47 are in Singapore, 11 in Malaysia, 8 each in Hong Kong and Japan, 6 in China, and 1 in South Korea.

Reporting period: 1H2009

Rental revenue = $105.2m (up 21.7% year-on-year)(2Q 2009 started and ended with 81 properties. 2Q 2008 started with 72 properties and ended with 76 properties)
Returns after tax = $57.3m (up 11.8% year-on-year)
Overall occupancy rate = 98.3%
Distribution per unit = 2.95 cents (down 25% year-on-year)(decrease in DPU y-o-y due to additional units arising from the rights issue in Aug 2008)
NAV = $0.88
Current price = $0.645
Yield = 4.57%

Recent significant activities: Rights issue of 3 units for every 4 units owned at a right price of $0.9285.

Analysts’ target = $0.70 (DBS)

My view: With low PE, low PB and reason yield, it is recommended to buy half of your target quantity. Should there be a technical downturn in the 2H2009, you can then complete your acquisition. I still hold the view that global economy has passed the pit of the business cycle.








To be continue……..

Global economic recovery 'has started'

Isn't this what we have been waited for - global recovery. In fact, all the signs and symptoms suggested that we may have just passed the bottom of the business cycle - we are on the road to recovery. Well, that's what i reckon. But do not expect that thing will change overnight. Do not think that out of sudden businesses are reporting huge jump in revenue and profit, or consumer confidence and job creation skyrockted etc. Get real, it takes a bit of time to feel the positive impact - assuming no more big scandal or crisis. Trust me, many local companies still keep their "headcount freeze" policy intact.

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WASHINGTON - The global recovery from recession has begun but countries will need to rebalance their economies to make sure it is sustainable, International Monetary Fund's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, said Tuesday.
'The recovery has started. Sustaining it will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries,' he said in an IMF article, released in advance of publication on Wednesday.
Mr Blanchard cautioned that predictable models based on past recoveries from recessions would not apply to the worst global slump in seven decades.
'The world is not in a run-of-the mill recession. The turnaround will not be simple. The crisis has left deep scars, which will affect both supply and demand for many years to come,' he said. -- AFP

NLP with Mind Kinesis (3)

Perceptual Positions

In NLP, perceptual position is a process (a mental technique) whereby you mentally review (or preview) a situation from a number of different positions (or point of views) in order to enrich your appreciation of what is involved. The use of perceptual position:

- Improves your understanding of other people.
- To take a step back and consider issues.
- Helps you appreciate the influence of your verbal and non-verbal behaviour on others, and the influence of their behaviour on you.

To do this, first identify a past event that you have a serious relationship problem. You are, and must, be willing to let it go. Then mark 3 positions on the floor - position 1 represent's client himself, position 2 represnt the third party and position 3 represent a coach/consultant. Let’s assume that you are the coach/consultant and you are doing perceptual position with a client.

Step 1:
- Briefly discuss on this issue with client and identify the third party involved in this situation.

Step 2:
- Get client into position 1 and fully associate with his/her own feeling, viewpoint, experience etc.
- Ask client questions like “how do you feel”, “what is your highest intention”, “what’s your opinion of the third party”, “why is he/she acting in this way” etc etc?

Step 3:
- Step out of position 1 and break state (ask any irrelevant question or remark).
- “What did you have for breakfast”.

Step 4:
- Get client into position 2 and fully associate into the other party’s feeling, viewpoint, experience etc.
- Ask client questions like “how do you feel”, “what is happening”, “what is your highest intention”, “what’s your opinion of the you in position 1”?

Step 5:
- Step out of position 2 and break state (ask any irrelevant question or remark).
- “Sorry I need a toilet break”.

Step 6:
- Get client into position 3 and fully associate into a consultant/coach.
- Ask client questions like “how do you feel the “you” in position 1 & 2”, “what are the differences in behaviours and intention”, “what are the values you can draw to address the problem”, “what more can be done to improve relationship”?

Step 7:
- Step out of position 3 and break state (ask any irrelevant question or remark).

Step 8:
- Get into position 1 again and ask how well can client handle the situation now.

Step 9:
- Get into position 2 again and ask how well can client handle the situation now.

Note again that NLP is more an art than science. So you actually can find other NLP coaches with slightly different procedure. Some come with position 4 whilst others recommend to go through the cycle 2 times.

What I am about to say next is a matter of my opinion. Firstly, the whole processes may look profound but is very simple – just try to put yourself into someone else’s shoe. And many of us could be actually doing it most of the time (without going through the steps above) by being understanding. In my opinion, perceptual positions can only be used under certain circumstances. E.g. you can’t do this to a lady who had been raped, or someone who had been cheated by his/her friend in a business deal or a wife been constantly abused by her husband. Also note that perceptual position requires you to “associate into the thinking/behaviour/intention” of the third party. A person simply cannot try to perceive the behaviour/intention of the third party through his/her own very brain especially when the third party has a downright ill intention.

Therefore, in my opinion, perceptual position is used in a normal situation of mis-understanding. And actually anyone can do it without going through the steps above – by taking a deep breathe and do self-reflection on the whole issue assuming that that person is open and willing to mend the relationship.





…….. to be continue

NLP with Mind Kinesis (2)

Basically NLP’s communication model says that when we receive messages, our brain will process, filter and alter it. These messages become certain meaning to the recipient depending on many factors. And whatever this meaning might be, couple with the recipient’s physical posture, it ultimately determines the recipient’s BEHAVIOUR. And of course, the behaviour will have a direct impact on the result. That means to say, if a person wants to have solid result in things he/she is doing, he/she must change to a positive posture and do something such that whatever message the brain processes, the meaning to it is always positive. Hence, when the internal representation and the physical appearance both turned positive, the recipient would take massive and unstoppable actions to get what he/she wants.

The question is – how to make sure that our brain will always interpret messages positively? That’s why people pay a few thousand dollars for NLP programme. And if you think that I can share with you the course detail such that you can acquire the skill by just reading notes, you are dreaming. Can you learn driving or ballet by reading blogs? Not likely. Besides, there are quite a number of NLP tools to use and I’m not even competence in any of them. I mean get real; a person cannot be competent by attending a 6-day coaching.

My Second Struggle

When the programme started on 17 Jul, I had another problem and a serious one. Not many people knew that I had a medical condition – hearing problem. Sometime in May this year, my hearing started to deteriorate and doctors just simply gave me medicines and eardrop. And it got worst by the time I started the NLP programme. I totally have no mood to continue with the programme as I am worried that I might turn deaf. If that happens, I will lose my job and become a burden to my parents. In fact, my hearing problem was one of the factors that upset me in May and I’ve been running around clinics/polyclinic since then.

I told my NLP trainer on my personal problem and he advised me to focus on controllable things – to see specialists (he shared during 1st day training that highly effective people focus on controllable things). The final outcome is beyond my control. He wants me to think on the positive side. Finally I went to see the specialist and still continue with the NLP programme.

First 3 days

During the first 3 days, we gone through quite a number of tools such as NLP’s presuppositions which to-date, I still could not fully appreciate the concept. There are 14 presuppositions but some of them seems to be repeating especially those related to “behaviour” or “resources”.

And one thing very important to highlight here is that NLP tools do not provide solutions to clients’ problem. These tools are not designed to provide solution but to guide the client to get the solution from himself. Doctors seek to provide solution to client’s problem, but not NLP tools!

We also touched on how to use our senses to build rapport, to influence and improve communications. For example by taking note on client’s breathing, skin colour, by mirroring client’s habit/movement, by chunking up/down the messages, submodalities, swish patterns etc. I’ll just share one exercise here – sensory acuity (seeing, hearing, feeling, smelling and tasting). It is very important to “sense” what’s going around us (in Mandarin we call that as 知自知彼，百战百胜):

- Feedback /information that indicates the extent to which you are on or off target in achieving your outcomes.
- Other people’s actions and reactions to certain situations/stimuli.
- How you are reacting to certain situations/stimuli.

To practice your sensory acuity, you can do this simple exercise with someone. This exercise is a two-person exercise - A and B. B’s job is to observe A. To simplify the discussion, let us assume A is a male and B a female.

1. A clear his mind so as to be in neutral state, closes his eyes and thinks of someone he dislikes.

2. While A thinks about this person, B takes note of any physiological reaction on A such as tension around the eyes, changes in skin colour, heavy breathing etc.

3. Once step 2 is completed, ask A any irrelevant question or remarks such as “can I borrow $50 from you?” This is called a break state and it clears the mind of the internal representations of the person A dislikes.

4. A closes his eyes and thinks of someone he likes while B repeats step 2.

5. A break state by stretching and/or looking out the window.

6. Now B describe to A her observation when A was thinking of someone he likes and dislikes.

7. A chooses one of the two people he thought about earlier and does not tell B which person it is. He closes his eyes and thinks of this person again.

8. From what she observed earlier, B tells A who A is thinking about.






…… to be continue

NLP with Mind Kinesis (1)

I have not been writing on my blog for more than a year despite surged in global market. I think it’s about time I start writing and sharing. But today I am not going to talk about stock market. Instead I like to share with you my encounter with NLP.

Now what the hell is NLP? NLP stands for Neuro-linguistic Programming. In a nutshell, NLP is about altering our thoughts and that of others in order to produce the intended results. This is achieved by using the tools of NLP to alter the way our brain process data/information in order to influence our actions. This is generally known as having a “positive mindset”. It was a model created by Richard Bandler and John Grinder plus a few others. Unfortunately these buggers fell out in the 80s and in 90s, Bandler filed a lawsuit against Grinder. The legal case came to an end 10 years later.

By the way, the above description of NLP is not found in dictionary or wikipedia. It’s my definition based on what I learn from Cayden, founder of Mind Kinesis. Hopefully I got it correct…..hahaha.

How I Got There?

How I got myself enrolled into the NLP programme in the first place? I am sure most of my friends in NLP course make a choice to sign up mainly to overcome obstacles in life. But not for me. I join the course because of one good buddy Bob – he paid up half of the course fee in my name after he attended the free seminar. Actually I had previously attended the seminar but didn’t have the intention to sign up because I don’t think I have any problem in life!!! When I said this in the class, somebody turned to me and said, “wow, no problem, then you got very serious problem!!!”

Knowing Bob for more than 10 years, IMHO, he is not as generous as one might think and certainly not a philanthropist.

“No offence brother if you are reading my blog now!!! Hahaha…….”

But yet for once in his lifetime (or perhaps many more to come), he done something extraordinary for me. He paid half of my course fee and gave me a choice to pay the other half to attend the programme. The root cause of his unprecedented action was because I was at super low mood in May this year. Was it mid-life crisis? Maybe but certainly stressful job is one of the contributing factors.

And there came my first struggle – should I pay half of it? It’s a thousand dollar mind you. Finally I chose to sign up the programme even though I struggled for a while. As to what’s going on deep inside, that’s for you to find out!!!

Whatever it is, I had finally completed the programme and certified. Seriously I never thought that I would finish the whole programme as I had other struggles, which I will share subsequently. All this would not take place without Bob and “thanks brother”!!! I promise you that one day I make my first million, I’ll compensate you back your one thousand dollar course fee.



……..to be continue

脚踏实地

A good friend of mine send me a very meaningful article. There was no profound knowledge or new discovery in it. It was just a simple sharing call "being down to earth". Many of us would have heard this teaching many times during school days but after we step into the society, we want "fast track to success". While some are genuine skills, many fell into his own trap - greed.

And I always wonder, if there is really a sit-at-home-and-get-rich method, and everyone becomes millionaires, then what is the value of a millionaire?

From all the stories I heard from friends or in the paper, it seems that usually the teacher/trainer himself actually gets richer. As for the hundreds of students or followers.......

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（联合早报网讯）台湾中国时报报道，台湾第一夫人周美青最近疯棒球，连马英九都笑称「她本来只是个小球迷，已经快要变成大球迷了」。不过，周美青不只看棒球，还在部落格发表文章，以美国职棒年薪最高的打击名将A-Rod服用禁药的例子为教材，教育全国小朋友「脚踏实地胜过取巧」。

周美青在部落格撰文指出，美国职棒年薪最高、被视为最有希望超越邦兹七百六十二支全垒打纪录的打击名将A-Rod，承认自己曾因压力太大、力求表现而服用禁药，这个事件让所有棒球迷感到震惊与失望。 　　美国总统奥巴马在记者会中被问到对这事件的反应，除了表示沮丧外，也希望所有的孩子在看到A-Rod承认违禁的转播时，了解到成功是无法取巧，没有捷径的。

周美青指出，功利主义社会下，人比较躁进而没有耐心，凡事追求迅速、快捷。看书要速读，学习要速成，吃饭有速食，行车要飙速，书店里充斥教人如何迅速致富、快速减肥、一分钟成为各种达人的书。 　　但她认为，做事积极、讲求效率当然很好，人格的养成、知识的学习、技巧的磨练，是需要一定的过程、长时间的潜移默化、日以继夜反覆训练的，一味追求短时间内达到目标，往往揠苗助长；最坏的情形，是为了快速成功，不择手段，摒弃了道德良知。

「抄捷径也许短时间可以达成目标，但因未经磨练，所以经不起考验。」周美青强调，许多事情「过程」比「省时」重要，应该注重孩子学习的过程与品质，而不是学习的快慢与成绩；成功没有捷径，经济的复苏亦然，脚踏实地、安分守己的态度才是最重要的。周美青撰文：脚踏实地胜过取巧

What Time Is It?

I’ve been hiding away from stock market for almost a year. I literally stopped updating on business/financial/economic news. It’s a total stop since early 2008. You only get to see some of my holiday pictures on my blog. But this is going to change now as I am back to business again! As you can see, this is my first article in 2009! But hold you horse!

Recently, a few friends had been asking me whether if “now is the time”? This is because, while some had made quick bucks from AIG or City Group, others were motivated with strengthening of indexes around the world.

The important question is – how to assess/predict whether now is the correct time? When is the correct time? Can any human being possibly know when is the correct time? Does holding an MBA in finance or CFA give you an edge in predicting the right time?

Answer is NO!

There is a way to predict the right time but unfortunately, this method is also not possible. That is to have the ability to read all investors’ mind. My point is indexes are just flashing numbers that reflects all investors’ action/decision. Unless you are able to read their mind, by looking at these numbers will not help you a lot unless you want to speculate. Furthermore, most of the time, the decision of these huge masses is wrong! I am not bragging. I always like to share with my personal friends one of my findings on stock investments – don’t follow the crowd, they make mistakes very frequently.

So if staring at the indexes is not advised, then what other better approaches? The answer, I would like to repeat again is the economic health especially of the world largest and most powerful country – the United States. Is U.S. economy on its road to recovery? Any convincing evidence? How about U.S. job market? Certainly high unemployment and low income will hit the manufacturing sector. And when U.S. manufacturers shrink their production output, Singapore manufacturers are going to suffer.

Recently a lady came to my company for an interview. She is an accounting professional currently working for a manufacturing company. Unfortunately, her company cut working days by a hefty 40%! That would mean a huge pay cut for her, temporarily. She has no choice but to find another company although she likes the working environment/culture in her present job.

The following are excerpts from the Business Times that hopefully will give you a feel of the economy.

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“As Wall Street put to bed the first four-week run of gains for the US stock market in nearly a year and a half last Friday, market strategists were already debating whether the nascent bull run can stand up to the challenge of an especially grim first-quarter earnings reporting season.

……. On Friday, stocks continued to rally despite another awful, estimate-beating employment report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained almost 40 points, or 0.5 per cent, to end at 8,017.59, its first close above 8,000 since Feb 9. The S&P 500 climbed eight points or one per cent, reaching 842.50 at the closing bell. The Nasdaq composite added 19 points, or 1.2 per cent, to 1,621.87.

=============================
While a global recovery is possible in 2010, Mr Soros said the timing will ultimately depend on the depth of the recession. China, he said, will be the first country to emerge from recession, probably this year, and will spearhead global growth in 2010.

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The report comes after government data on Friday showed that the US unemployment rate rose to a 26-year high of 8.5 per cent, as employers slashed 663,000 jobs under the strain of recession.

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'The lead economic indicators have not shown any sign that there is a bottoming or a recovery, or there are no concrete signs of that,' said SIAS Research vice-president Roger Tan.

=============================
'It's a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around,' Mr Soros, 78, said in an interview on Monday with Bloomberg Television.

….. Mr Soros said the banking system is 'seriously under water' with banks on 'life support'. 'They are weighed down by a lot of bad assets, which are still declining in value,' he said in the interview. 'The amount is difficult to estimate, but I think it's in the region of maybe a trillion-and-a-half dollars.'